A Critical Examination of Nigeria's Electricity Generation and Supply between 2001 and 2020

This study focuses on Nigeria's journey towards achieving the United Nations' 7th Sustainable Energy Goal by 2030, which aims to provide cheap, sustainable, and reliable energy access worldwide. It reviews Nigeria's electricity policies from 2001 to 2020 and employs a deterministic modelling tool to identify the least-cost electrification options for the entire country. Nigeria, being in its early economic stages, is advised to promote renewable energy to diversify its energy mix and build renewable power plants. This shift towards renewables is seen as advantageous. The modelling tool introduced allows policymakers, even those without technical expertise, to assess the potential impacts of their decisions before implementation. The study's projections indicate that a combination of renewable and non-renewable energy sources is the optimal path for Nigeria's future energy network. However, challenges such as oil price fluctuations, supply chain issues, and a high cost of living may slow the adoption of renewable energy. Two scenarios are examined: the Forecast scenario based on the current national grid performance and the Policy scenario aligning with the Nigerian Government's 2030 electrification plan. Both scenarios suggest that increasing transmission lines and power generation while integrating renewables can significantly reduce operational costs. Currently, only about 60% of Nigeria's population has access to electricity, and it is often unreliable. To support economic growth and population needs, the study emphasises the necessity of incorporating more renewable energy sources in Nigeria's energy expansion plans. Climate change and global warming underscore the importance of a resilient and stable energy sector. Furthermore, the study identifies policies that have contributed to electricity generation and supply, especially in rural and off-grid areas. These policies encourage investment, support diverse energy sources, and involve various stakeholders in the electricity value chain. By implementing the right regulations to attract renewable energy investors, Nigeria can address its power sector issues and expand electricity access to unconnected regions. In conclusion, Nigeria's path to sustainable and reliable energy involves a balanced mix of renewable and non-renewable sources, improved policies, and investments in untapped natural resources like solar, wind, biomass, and tidal energy. This approach can create a cleaner, more sustainable energy future for the country.