A prospective evaluation of the Transtheoretical Model of Change applied to exercise in young people

Objectives: To investigate the utility of the Transtheoretical Model of Change in predicting exercise in young people. Design: A prospective study: assessments were done at baseline and follow-up 6 months later. Method: Using stratified random sampling 1055 Chinese high school pupils living in Hong Kong, 533 of who were followed up at 6 months, completed measures of stage of change (SCQ), self-efficacy (SEQ), perceptions of the pros and cons of exercising (DBQ) and processes of change (PCQ). Data were analysed using one-way ANOVA, repeated measures ANOVA and independent sample t tests. Results: The utility of the TTM to predict exercise in this population is not strong; increases in self-efficacy and decisional balance discriminated between those remaining active at baseline and follow-up, but not in changing from an inactive (e.g., Precontemplation or Contemplation) to an active state (e.g., Maintenance) as one would anticipate given the staging algorithm of the TTM. Conclusion: The TTM is a modest predictor of future stage of change for exercise in young Chinese people. Where there is evidence that TTM variables may shape movement over time, self-efficacy, pros and behavioural processes of change appear to be the strongest predictors.