Market transformations: gas conversion as a blueprint for net zero retrofit

All UK net zero scenarios call for zero gas use in homes by 2050. Delivering this along with any enabling measures is the largest heating market transformation since the gas conversion in the period 1965–77. Academics have long called for a market transformation approach to retrofit, and past work has outlined pillars of a successful framework: programme design, marketing and outreach, workforce engagement, financial incentives, and data and evaluation. This paper adapts and expands on this framework to study the transformation off the gas network as part of a national net zero retrofit strategy. It uses annual reports from the Gas Council and qualitative interviews with one expert witness to characterise the gas conversion as a market transformation problem. It then carries out a similar mapping for the present-day net zero transformation. The study finds that nearly all the actions taken during the gas conversion have counterpart activities that must be carried out for net zero. In contrast, the transition to net zero is, however, more fragmented, with unclear objectives, an insufficiently articulated value proposition and no process owner. Ideas are proposed for how these gaps can be addressed by both policymakers and researchers. POLICY RELEVANCE All UK net zero scenarios call for zero gas use in homes by 2050. Delivering this along with any enabling measures is the largest heating market transformation since the gas conversion from ‘town gas’ (i.e. gas manufactured from coal) to natural gas in the period 1965–77. The UK policy approach to retrofit has so far been fragmented and ineffective. Market transformation clarifies long-term objectives and coordinates programmes to meet those objectives. This paper situates the gas conversion process as a market transformation problem and studies the factors that characterised its successful implementation. It then carries out a similar mapping for the present-day net zero transformation. The study finds that net zero has comparatively unclear objectives, fragmented supply chains, an insufficiently articulated value proposition and no process owner. The gas conversion had active policy responses for all these issues, which offer useful lessons and a blueprint for net zero retrofit policies today.