Projecting the carbon emissions from refrigeration used in the UK food industry to 2050

The impact to food cold chain greenhouse gas emissions from changes to population, climate, equipment efficiency, f-gas phase-downs, electrical grid carbon intensity and electrification of transport refrigeration up to 2050 were predicted using a 2019 baseline from a previous study. GHG emissions were projected to reduce by 98% from 2030 to 2050. This is due to decarbonisation of the electrical grid, electrification of diesel powered transport refrigeration units (TRUs) and f-gas phase down. Population and increased ambient temperature only have a marginal effect (7.2% increase to 2050). Although GHG emissions reduce, the electrical demand on the grid is projected to increase by 9.9% from 2030 to 2040 and then remain relatively stable. This is due to increased electrical demand as two thirds of HGV diesel TRUs are converted to electric.