Quantifying prediction of pathogenicity for within-codon concordance (PM5) using 7541 functional classifications of BRCA1 and MSH2 missense variants

Purpose: Conditions and thresholds applied for evidence weighting of within-codon concordance (PM5) for pathogenicity vary widely between laboratories and expert groups. Because of the sparseness of available clinical classifications, there is little evidence for variation in practice. Methods: We used as a truthset 7541 dichotomous functional classifications of BRCA1 and MSH2, spanning 311 codons of BRCA1 and 918 codons of MSH2, generated from large-scale functional assays that have been shown to correlate excellently with clinical classifications. We assessed PM5 at 5 stringencies with incorporation of 8 in silico tools. For each analysis, we quantified a positive likelihood ratio (pLR, true positive rate/false positive rate), the predictive value of PM5-lookup in ClinVar compared with the functional truthset. Results: pLR was 16.3 (10.6-24.9) for variants for which there was exactly 1 additional colocated deleterious variant on ClinVar, and the variant under examination was equally or more damaging when analyzed using BLOSUM62. pLR was 71.5 (37.8-135.3) for variants for which there were 2 or more colocated deleterious ClinVar variants, and the variant under examination was equally or more damaging than at least 1 colocated variant when analyzed using BLOSUM62. Conclusion: These analyses support the graded use of PM5, with potential to use it at higher evidence weighting where more stringent criteria are met.